STATE INTERVENTION AND MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT

Igniting and Sustaining Global Recovery: Key Macroeconomic Management Challenges

 A global economic recovery is expected to be ignited in 2010 but this will be characterized by very different growth trajectories among advanced and emerging economies. The downside risks are formidable. Sustaining this recovery will require skillful macroeconomic management. Exit strategies for fiscal stimulus will need to be carefully timed and credible fiscal consolidation plans nee...

The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their time series alternatives, whether the forecasting record has improved over time, the rationality of ma...

Economic Reforms and Macroeconomic Management in Pakistan

Pakistan was one of the few developing countries that had achieved an average growth rate of over 5 percent over a four decade period ending 1990. Consequently, the incidence of poverty had declined from 40 percent to 18 percent by the end of 1980s. But the 1990s proved to be a lost decade for Pakistan, Growth in per capita income dropped to slightly over 1 percent. Poverty resurfaced and about...

Indian Macroeconomic Management At the Crossroads Between Government and Markets

Consequences of Aid Volatility for Macroeconomic Management and Aid Effectiveness

This paper reviews both the literature on aid volatility and also adds to that literature. In general, the focus of this literature has been on the volatility of overall aid, while we focus more on the volatility of the individual aid sectors, e.g., education aid. In doing this, detailed use is made of the Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database on aid commitments and disbursements, particular...